Business as usual in Germany
CDU got the second worst result ever, SPD the worst result since the 1800s. AfD is the winner, yet the loosers are going to form Germany’s new government.
2025-02-25
The German election results are in, aligning closely with pre-election opinion polls. The liberal-conservative CDU/CSU secured the largest share of votes at 28%, paving the way for CDU leader Friedrich Merz to become the new chancellor. Despite this victory, the 28% vote share marks the CDU’s second-worst performance in its history.
AfD excluded despite big win
Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the second-largest party, securing just over 20% of the vote. Despite being ideologically closer to the CDU, the latter has chosen to try form a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The CDU has firmly ruled out any collaboration with the AfD due to its nationalist stance, a highly sensitive issue in post-World War II Germany. Concerns over maintaining voter trust and distancing itself from the AfD’s controversial image have driven this decision. The AfD is frequently characterized in political and media discourse as extreme, racist, and anti-democratic, which has led many of its supporters to remain silent about their voting intensions. Over the years, the CDU has actively contributed to the stigmatization of the AfD, making any potential alliance politically unviable at this time. While cooperation between the two parties may become conceivable in the future, the CDU believes the current climate is not conducive to such a partnership.
Big coalition once again
For a long time, it seemed likely that the CDU and SPD, which co-governed for much of Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure, would need a third party to secure a majority coalition. However, this turned out not to be the case. With the liberal FDP and the newly established leftist party BSW narrowly failing to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation, the two traditional powerhouses of German politics are now able to form a majority government through a two-party coalition.
For the SPD, which suffered its worst election result in over a century with just over 15% of the vote, joining the government could come at a steep price. As the junior partner to the CDU, which claimed twice as many votes, such a coalition risks further eroding the SPD’s position and could push the party into prolonged decline. The competition on the left is intensifying. Following Sunday’s election, the German left is now split into two equally sized factions: the SPD, representing moderate, government-oriented socialists in western Germany, and the Linke and BSW, embodying more radical socialism in the east. Each faction commands approximately 15% of the electorate.
FDP and BSW narrowly missed the 5% hurdle
The liberal FDP has lost its seats in the German parliament, prompting the party leader to announce his resignation. The party faced significant setbacks after joining a coalition government with the Social Democrats and the Greens following the 2021 election. In Sunday’s election, the FDP saw its support plummet, securing just over 4% of the vote. Historically, the FDP has often served as a junior partner in German governments, typically aligning with the CDU but occasionally with the SPD. However, this coalition with both the Social Democrats and the Greens proved too challenging. The FDP found itself in an unfavorable position, and its hopes that voters would value its decision to ”take responsibility” in 2021 were ultimately unmet.
For the BSW, the result was equally disappointing. With 4.97% of the vote, they narrowly missed representation, falling short by just 15,000 votes. Despite receiving approximately 2.5 million votes, it was not enough to secure seats.
What will change after the elections
The CDU has pledged to revitalize Germany’s economy through business-friendly policies and significant investments in the country’s underperforming infrastructure. Following Trump’s recent remarks on European security, incoming Chancellor Merz emphasizes the need for stronger European cooperation and stresses the urgency of reducing reliance on the United States. He also prioritizes tighter controls on immigration and addressing security concerns. Merz aims to form a new coalition government swiftly, citing global uncertainty fueled by unclear signals from the U.S. on security matters. However, coalition talks in Germany are traditionally lengthy, often stretching up to six months.
AfD may gain more support
The AfD is stepping into a phase of new possibilities. Alice Weidel, one of the party’s co-leaders and its candidate for chancellor, is focused on shaping a forward-looking strategy. She is urging the CDU to consider collaboration, emphasizing that with the AfD’s support, the CDU could advance more of its own policies—an approach she believes would benefit the country. While acknowledging that the CDU is not yet prepared for such a partnership, the AfD aims to capitalize on the CDU’s current need to compromise with the SPD in government. With the FDP no longer in parliament, the AfD positions itself as the primary alternative for disillusioned CDU voters.
For now, with a big coalition of the CDU and SPD, it seems it will be business as usual in Germany after the elections.